I wouldn’t trust the US at all if I were him. Russia will not honor yhr cease fire but take advantage and Trump will blame Zelensky.
Agreed I get the suspicion that if a cease-fire actually happens Russia will pull a sneak attack during the cease-fire and blame it on Ukraine, which trump will inevitably back and send more weapons to Russia. And that could escalate in other European countries being brought into conflict.
Yes this is advantageous to both the USA and the world. Zelensky played a better game and trump and most of his followers are just too stupid/bought in to see it.
Spoiler alert: Trump will blame Zelenskyy
Double realpolitik spoiler: Zelenskyy expects that and is instead setting up a narrative to demand more action from sane countries (Canada, Europe) when the US inevitably renegs.
But as a fun little gift Rubio set the US up to look like assholes with a statement last night:
Rubio noted that if the Kremlin rejects the ceasefire proposal, “then we’ll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here.”
“Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking,” Rubio said, adding that U.S. President Donald Trump has been clear that he wants to stop the war swiftly.
This will be egg on the administration’s face when they try and walk it back when Russia says “fuck off”.
This will be egg on the administration’s face when they try and walk it back when Russia says “fuck off”.
That entire meeting was zel driving a wedge between Putin and Trump. If that wasn’t obvious when zel said he thought Putin was afraid of Trump then I’m not sure what else would make it obvious.
Now it’s to the point where it’s basically like whoever blinks first is the pussy, think of it like a really dumb petty Cuban missile crisis.
“then we’ll, unfortunately, know what the impediment is to peace here.”
Like we didn’t already know that (see: Russia’s initial invasion). But facts and reason don’t matter to these clowns.
Again, of course we all know that, we all know that Russia is the aggressor here and Trump is clearly trying to put them in a favorable position for some reason that may be related to blackmail, future aspirations or just wanting to gargle Putin’s balls. These are facts that can’t change - but by accepting the cease fire and making these statements Zelenskyy is trying to maximize the blow back if and when America renegs to, ideally, maximize the support Ukraine can receive.
In the world of diplomacy appearance matters more than facts - three months ago America was the dominant economic force and had a military that could curb stomp anyone in formal battle - today America is still the dominant economic force and has a military that can curbstomp anyone in formal battle but they’re an unreliable partner and so America has lost nearly all of their outsized soft/diplomatic power - the facts are still essentially the same, but the perception massively shifted.
He set us up to look like assholes if we set Zelensky’s whole visit up to dunk on him and blame him for Russia’s invasion, so Rubio’s sprinkle of respectful/rational comments doesn’t really change things
No he doesn’t.
Does he?
No - he can’t possibly. He’s not that stupid. He knows just as well as anyone and better than most that Trump can never be trusted, and especially when it comes to his idol Putin.
So he has to know that Russia could methodically reject or violate every single aspect of this deal, and Trump will just smile and nod and say, “Whatever you want Vladdy!”
So this has to be just a bit of careful rhetoric - an attempt by Zelenskyy to make the responsibility the US necessarily has for this deal manifest, so that he’ll have something to point to later on, when Trump inevitably betrays him.
He’s trying to make Trump look weak if he fails to meet our end of the bargain. He knows it will happen, Trump is weak, and Trump will say something like, “Strength is looking your enemy in the eye while you suck his dick.”
Trump may be weak but our military won’t let us look like pussies and hegseth is too much of a bitch to actually be sec def and stand up to anyone anyway.
It’s meant to apply pressure. Failing to provide a strong response would mean that Trump is weak. He is both stroking Trumps ego and subtly poking it at the same time.
Mm… good point.
My rhetorical question aside, yes - it’s plain that what Zelenskyy’s actually doing is putting Trump on the spot.
But I hadn’t put together that the specific phrasing of it also strokes Trump’s ego - that’s a nice touch
You’re not the audience Zelenskyy is speaking to. He’s speaking primarily to an audience of one. The audience is Trump.
The spectators (i.e. the rest of Europe) are also watching this and observing that Zelenskyy is still doing his best to follow proper geopolitical and diplomatic form, and will probably continue to strengthen their support for Ukraine when orangeboi inevitably fucks them over again.
I really hope he doesn’t actually believe that and this is just a public statement for pressure, because this is Drump we’re talking about, his fingers are probably permanently crossed LMAO
If there’s anyone who can run circles around Little t, it’s … well, it’s anyone, but it’s also Zelenskyy.
And yet, here we are.
Zelensky should use any pause in the conflict to re-arm like mad. Divest from Starlink everywhere possible, and bring in European weapon systems. Don’t even think about slowing down until they’re mining Chernobyl for nukes with a stockpile already standing.
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@Skyrmir@lemmy.world
The Russians are aware, and this won’t alter the fact that Ukraine has lost the war and won’t be able to re-arm in a pause. Russia has already stated many times previously that they aren’t willing to accept a ceasefire — why should they when they’re the winning side?
Zelensky has by no means lost the war, short of the US actually attacking them, which is very unlikely. Especially since half the stalling speeches while the GoP lost the CR vote today were GoP senators talking about backing Ukraine against Russia.
The EU is giving Zelensky better weapons than Russia can field, but production is slow or still ramping up. Russia has a ton of production, for shit weapons. Every passing moment moves advantage more towards Ukraine as more weapon system and insulation against Trump/Starlink comes online. No matter how the cease fire ends up, Russia is on a path to defeat by the end of the year. By next year Putin will be leveraging his house to pay Xi back his loans. And no matter who wins, China wins.
Europe can’t even produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M. And Russia has been massively out producing Europe in terms of air-launched cruise missiles so don’t bring up Storm Shadow (Kh-101 is longer range than Storm Shadow anyways) or other similar weapon systems.
Russia produced more T-90Ms (a very good tank mind you) last year than the amount of tanks the entire German military has. Production was 20-30 per month last year but this has likely since doubled. Losses for T-90Ms have been low as per Oryx with production massively outpacing losses (one to two months of production last year was enough to replace yearly T-90M losses).
Even T-72B3 has a superior fire control system than the forty year old system used on the Leopard 2A6.
The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. People forget that tanks are not the only weapon that armies have. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a few weeks before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.
Most of Russian Armed Forces aren’t even in Ukraine, majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia.
Hence why casualties amongst Russian professionals are low:
Motorized Rifles: 6,457
VDV: 3,257
Naval Infantry: 1,305
Tank Crew: 1,806
Artillery: 851
Special Forces: 736
Engineering: 291
Navy: 291
VVS: 265
Other: 957
Total: 16,216
Source: MediaZona
For comparison:
US losses from 2003-2005 mainly against insurgents: 5175
Source: Defense Casualty Analysis System
In comparison, Russia had just annihilated tens of thousands of Ukraine’s troops from the most elite units at Kursk oblast (up to 70K albeit take that number with a grain of salt as MoD numbers on both sides, can’t be trusted).
oh, the foreshadowing
He will get a free Tesla…paid for by him. And he will fucking love it or else.
For Russia, this ceasefire is most likely more helpful to re assess than it is for Ukraine.
It would be odd if Russia would decline it, and it might just be to provoke a reaction from the US, in whatever way that might be.
bro.
have you seen the clown in charge?!
US still thinks it’s your fault, Zelenskyy. Now that the idiotic administration will see you meeting with the Saudi Prince, who’s to say that they’ll think you’re siding with terrorists now because they can’t differentiate reality from fiction? They don’t have your back right now. Russia will reject the ceasefire, US will still think it’s Ukraine’s fault, continue sucking Putin’s dick and stop supporting altogether.
US still thinks it’s your fault, Zelenskyy.
