Ok, yeah, just trying to cling to what little hope there is here—DON’T DEPRIVE ME OF MY HAPPY PLACE. 😉
I do think Lichtman’s right about debates not changing outcomes, tho…but of course there’s a first time for everything…
Also, looking at the list, I’m pretty sure more than 6 are false.
You mean for Biden now, or for previous elections?
It’s possible that the Dems would have held the House, barely, if the New York Democratic party hadn’t completely screwed up redistricting, so that’s maybe a "soft false." I think what he means by “charismatic” is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers. I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it’s the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least. Anyway, I wonder if that is considered a foreign policy failure; I don’t, but others might. Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains. I think it ends up sort of being how Lichtman himself interprets the keys a month or two before election day.EDIT: Rereading key #1, “After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections,” I guess that even if the NY Dems hadn’t screwed up there probably would have been a smaller majoirty than before, ergo false.