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Cake day: March 24th, 2022

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  • Zelensky this last week started saying that Ukraine will start negotiating by the end of the year.

    The recent “peace summit” in Switzerland was a failure, but immediately afterwards we saw a bunch of Western nations ramping up the aid and committing to deploying support personell for the rear (mostly medics and engineers they say). Probably Zelensky promised there will be one last counteroffensive. If some success, he’s probably thinking he will convince the Russians to accept less concessions.

    He announced this week that Russia must accept:

    • Ukraine joining NATO (no chance)

    • Ukraine joining the EU (maybe feasible, as Putin’s last terms did not prohibit this)

    • Russia to pay Ukraine monetary concessions for the war and lost territorry (significant that the Ukrainians are backpedalling on 1991 borders; maybe Russia will actually pay as a negotiating chip for further Ukrainian concessions)

    He did not talk about:

    • demilitarization (which will definitely be a Russian term)

    • denazification (which Russia will likely accept symbolically, in favour of other concessions)

    • commitment to neutrality (which Russia will definitely demand)

    And he still wants to treat Russia through a third party (likely the US/UK, possibly China) which Russia will not accept.

    The Biden-Trump debate, as well as the French election results have shown that the West is unlikely to continue supporting Ukraine for long. That Zelensky is willing to negotiate by the end of the year probably has something to do with Biden’s likely exit from the White House in January.

    Furthermore, the current situation on the ground could not be more starkingly obvious:

    • Russians are sweeping Ukrainian defenses and making massive gains in significant areas.

    • The recent mobilization in Ukraine was a massive failure. Newly mobilized troops are either surrendering en masse AND giving up information to the Russians (which has led to an increase in precision strikes on Ukrainian HQs, ammo depots, vehicle depots and areas of troop concentration), or refusing to attack or take up positions for defense, or dying in large numbers due to poor training.

    • Ukrainian manpower is completely depleted and Ukrainian losses are climbing to record numbers.

    • Lack of defensive works that outlines the massive corruption regarding Western aid

    • Removal of commanding officers (like the general that Azov wanted removed) and disagreements between general staff and Zelensky (Zelensky and Syrsky are not getting along - it is likely that Syrsky refused to carry out a counteroffensive - also the aforementioned removed general was Syrsky’s friend/supporter/ally).

    It is no wonder that Western media will start actually telling some truth about Project Ukraine. They need to prepare the people for the inevitable defeat of the West in Ukraine.




  • Certainly the government is kind of panicked right now. There’s this weird thing going on where Hezbolah has accused Cyprus of participating in Israel’s war crimes, but at the same time, the Lebanese government is saying the Cypriot government isn’t involved in any hostilities with Lebanon, and ambassadors have been exchanging friendly compliments.

    People in general are not willing to be entangled in war at all. But at the same time, most live in a bubble where they think nothing bad will happen.

    Still, the majority of people assume that the government is lying. The communist party (AKEL) has been against whatever Cyprus is doing to aid Israel since almost the beginning, and has been organizing marches in support of Palestine since December. The right-wingers are more apathetic and critical than supportive, with few exceptions. Even parties that are cooperating with the government, are now unsure what to do, and some have started criticizing the government.


  • I’m Cypriot, and our government for the past 11 years has been neoliberal right wingers. Cyprus has always had a steady line of neutrality. We were one of the very few European countries to recognize Palestine’s statehood since the 70s and we were condemning Israel’s occupation,

    These neoliberal idiots have been steadily trying to get Cyprus into the US bossom. They think (or at least present it this way) that being closer to the US will help reunite the island. They’ve even tried to get us into NATO, but thankfully there was too much backlash for that to happen.

    One of the first things they did to signal to the US we want to be their vassals was to start getting better relations with Israel. A bunch of blunders occured because of this. Namely and most famously, Cyprus has served as a testing ground and tradehouse for Israeli surveillance technology. There was even a whole international scandal of spyware being found on journalists’, activists’ and politicians’ phones all over Europe, which originated from an Israeli company registered in Cyprus, with ties to the Cypriot government (look up the Predator spyware case).

    Long story short, we thought Israel’s military might would help make us secure, so we made treaties with them for bilateral military assistance. Turns out, nobody thought the bilateral nature of those treaties would bite us in the ass, and they did.

    There’s something to be said about the 2 british military bases on the island, and 1 american surveillance station, which have been used extensively for Israel’s sake, and obviously Cyprus can’t really consent about that.

    There’s also something to be said about Turkey always trying to fuck around with Cyprus in an effort to get their illegal military occupation entity recognized as a state.

    But we’ve also fucked up, because we enabled the Americans to start constructing the “humanitarian” dock in Gaza, that was used for that massacre a few weeks ago. Not only that, but our government (before the incident) had been boasting that it was their idea. Essentially they gave Israel and the US the excuse to end UNRWA’s humanitarian aid to Palestinians.




  • Last week they lost 15000 soldiers in a week, according to the Russian MoD weekly report.

    There was another social media post by another Ukrainian commander (regular army, I think their formation is defending Novovasilevka?) that says that the newest recruits are being blindfolded when transported to the front. The most recent mobilization has been so forceful, that even the Ukrainian government expects their new recruits to surrender immediately and give up information to the Russians.

    But those kinds of posts are of course ignored.




  • The sanctions targeted the Russian oligarchs quite a bit, by threatening their investments, properties and deposits in EU tax havens, like Cyprus and Greece. They were forced to transfer a bunch of assets back in Russia, which gave Putin the opportunity to crack down on their corruption and demanding that their wealth remains in Russia. Also, most importantly, he basically curbed their political power and political meddling. A big reason the Russian economy is doing so well is this returned wealth. So the first sanction packages basically backfired. The Europeans thought the Russian oligarchs would overthrow Putin if pressured. Turns out, Putin overthrew the Russian oligarchs.

    The new sanction packages leave the oligarchs alone and target Russian government assets in Europe. And yes, all packages have targeted the ability of simple civilians to interact economically with anybody in the US or Europe.



  • The US national debt is 35 trillion dollars. The interest alone is around 1 trillion dollars, which is about how much the Federal Reserve is printing every year. If the dollar starts losing its backing, all that money printing, used to mitigate the debt, is going to cause such an inflation, that it will essentially make US debts unsustainable. US banks essentially operate with the assumption that that will never happen. So when it happens, and they start calling in the debts they hold to back their other endeavours, and then start declaring bankruptcy, the US economy will collapse. For most people, it will likely be sudden, as it was in 2007.

    And this will likely pull the Euro (and the EU) down a similar death spiral.

    The US and European governments have a vague understanding of this, which is why they are trying so desperately and dangerously (and unsuccessfully) to weaken China and Russia. The whole point of the Ukraine provocation and the sanctions on Russia were an attempt to break up BRICS before it would become a problem. And ofcourse it backfired spectacularly.