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Joined 11 months ago
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Cake day: January 18th, 2024

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  • Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham gives allegiance to the Syrian Salvation Government, which is an alternative government of the Syrian opposition in the Idlib Governorate.[54][55] While the organisation officially adheres to the Salafi school; the High Council of Fatwa of the Syrian Salvation Government - to which it is religiously beholden - consists of ulema from Ash’arite and Sufi traditions as well.

    It’s a hodge podge of any warlord willing to back America. Cherry picking a certain religious faction to blame is a futile effort.






  • The timing is truly mysterious. Trump has not yet taken office, Iran still has a promised attack waiting, and suddenly Hezbollah accepts a ceasefire decoupled from a ceasefire in Gaza. Which was their red line.

    I would consider three options of what happened behind the scenes (or a mix of all three)

    • Significant concessions made behind the scenes by France and the US (and promise to push for a Gaza ceasefire?)
    • Significant threats against Lebanon by France and the US (potential direct strikes from the US and Europe / Sanctions on Lebanon?)
    • Hezbollah leadership has been compromised after assassinations of their previous leaders (less likely as they are coupled to Iran which is intact)

    Whichever it is, while the ceasefire has only officially been accepted by Lebanon and not Hezbollah, as long as they abide by it while Israel remains in full control the situation is stuck in a weird limbo.

    As usual Israel will keep firing and bombing and at one point someone will retaliate, which will be the point at which history starts according to western narratives.