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Cake day: July 17th, 2023

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  • Confused. It says she has less than a 50/50 shot at winning the electoral college, but then “a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College”

    I’m not a statistician, but what fucking math is showing any reasonable chance that Harris loses the popular vote? Because that’s the only way that math checks out.

    Electoral win: 0.473

    Electoral loss: 1 - 0.473 = 0.527

    Electoral Loss + Popular Win = 0.17

    I can’t lookup the formula right now, but this indicates that the chance of Harris losing the popular vote is significant