Just how useful is a forecast in a knife-edge election like this one, anyway? Even the insight that it could go either way is useful, Silver argues. “One potential advantage of having a forecast that says … it’s 50/50, is that people should be making their contingency plans, like, right away. It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] ammo and peanut butter” – that giggle again – “but it means, you know: what’s your strategy to protect American institutions in the event of a Trump second term? Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who maybe is more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to begin funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, instead of giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs.”

And while he fears a Trump win – “There were a lot of guardrails in place last time that prevented complete and utter disaster, but those guardrails have been weakened, right?” – he warns against painting it as an existential threat to democracy, at least as a political strategy. “The notion of basically holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden was like: ‘OK, sure, I may be running for president until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ – that’s a very unappealing message to swing voters … whereas Harris brings more joyfulness and is obviously a very talented woman”. He worries, though, that she has “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him]. I guess she kind of had to.”

  • skulblaka@sh.itjust.works
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    1 month ago

    Oh they’ll keep producing just fine. But when demand suddenly drops to half or less of what it was, they’re going to run into trouble, and fast. America imports an absolutely ludicrous amount of oil for many purposes. If the country collapses, that supply/demand chain dries up.

    Realistically, all the American Mega-Barons that are doing all this oil business will just set up shop in another country. Africa, maybe - plenty of open space and not much regulation out there. But that will take time and investment, time that existing oil supply barons may not have.

    They’d probably survive, but I have a hard time seeing all of the Middle East just quietly watching America burn down when we account for probably a solid half of their budget sheets in their most profitable sector.

    • rusticus@lemm.ee
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      1 month ago

      America is now a net exporter and made more domestic fossil fuels last year than anytime in history.