I think it’s most likely to take the role of the commercial songwriters that write formulaic pop. The people that team up with folks like Ed Sheeran and Lewis Capaldi to squeeze an album out of them in time to fulfill their contracts.
The formulaic pop won’t be much different. The pop stars will be much the same with up to date fashion. The people at the label will make more money because there will be fewer people to pay.
Writing music as a commercial venture is already pretty icky in my mind. It’s sort of the artistic equivalent of learning pickup lines and using them on people rather than having an interesting conversation.
Music as art won’t die but jobs as commercial composers and songwriters will dwindle.
My optimistic outlook is that most of the musical spaces I reside in will likely shun or be immune to whatever norms develop regarding AI. I personally care deeply about the fact that the music I listen to is made deliberately and thoughtfully by a human being, and I like to think there are many others who feel the same way.
More cynically though, I’m worried about AI taking market share away from music “made by humans”. If this becomes the norm, maybe there just won’t be money in doing things the old fashioned way. Maybe the type of musicians I want to listen to would be discouraged from making music in this new climate.