I think it’s undeniable, we are getting closer to a multipolar world- and for all that we may speculate (and have, and do) about how “far from it we are still,” the world is moving leaps and bounds- decades are taking place in weeks- and the west is also forcing things to such a point, through their attempts to prevent it.
It may be (will be) uncomfortable, and not just for the imperial cores of the west- it will be a great upheaval for China, it has been for Russia, and it will be across the BRICS and the global south. It will be dangerous- frankly, more dangerous than perhaps at any other point in recorded human history- I certainly think it is. But it will be worth it, no matter the outcome (of which I am, barring nuclear war, very optimistic), and it is so, so necessary- and what will come after will be the foundations from where a new world will be born.
You talk about ASML and their EUV, but that’s narrow-sighted IMO. China has already found a process around it (though it is less efficient- but considering how all the rest of the industry of the world essentially can be largely found in China, and how much they have invested in their infrastructure, their workforce, etc. to streamline their production- even then I think they more than break even). And if you look further into the topic, you’ll also find that China has the foundations- the talent, the resources, etc- to overcome it, and make ASML a thing of the past, even- it is a country of 1.5 billion, a greater total than that of the entire west and imperial bloc combined- and of those 1.5 billion, within their population no doubt, increasingly especially with the younger generations- an even more educated, more motivated population, also with more opportunities and far more of a stake in their nation’s efforts than that of the west (where it is increasingly rather the opposite).
ASML’s EUV machines and their process, for instance, is developed for export, and that is a limitation in and of itself; these machines are roughly the size of a bus, and that’s with them as minaturized as they can make it as-is. Look into the proposed and planned developments in China, and it becomes clear what’s next to come will in due time, wipe them off the map- for these manufacturing processes, for instance, it has been proposed and certainly can be made, that China could instead build an accelerator the size of a football field, and use that as a light source for a massive EUV complex which can and will produce chips at a volume incomprehensible to the west…
But I digress. EUV, at least western EUV, has already been made unnecessary; Huawei is already blatantly producing tangible proof of exactly that, albeit with less efficient DUV technology, yet they are basically right on the cusp of reaching parity all the same (and if not- so be it, it’s not like China or the universe will fall apart without it, and if worst comes to worst- especially in the case of a all-out economic split- China can very easily simply replicate existing EUV technology- the west cannot replicate China’s successes, not without first facing their own contradictions which have exacerbated to cartoonish proportions since the Reagan era with neoliberalism).
The west can try to monopolize, to stall, to hope that the “garden” can hold the keys to development and modernity out of reach of China and the global south- and FWIW it is China AND the entire global south, and particularly at the moment China and Russia (as two securely independent, deeply complimentary, and truly peer nations to the US) but also the rest of BRICS- but this is a losing game, it cannot be maintained, they can only ever stall, or try to overturn the table (and humanity altogether) if worst comes to worst. Its behavior is the height of imperial fallacy, and increasingly I will say- it is clear it will not succeed.
I think it’s undeniable, we are getting closer to a multipolar world- and for all that we may speculate (and have, and do) about how “far from it we are still,” the world is moving leaps and bounds- decades are taking place in weeks- and the west is also forcing things to such a point, through their attempts to prevent it.
It may be (will be) uncomfortable, and not just for the imperial cores of the west- it will be a great upheaval for China, it has been for Russia, and it will be across the BRICS and the global south. It will be dangerous- frankly, more dangerous than perhaps at any other point in recorded human history- I certainly think it is. But it will be worth it, no matter the outcome (of which I am, barring nuclear war, very optimistic), and it is so, so necessary- and what will come after will be the foundations from where a new world will be born.
You talk about ASML and their EUV, but that’s narrow-sighted IMO. China has already found a process around it (though it is less efficient- but considering how all the rest of the industry of the world essentially can be largely found in China, and how much they have invested in their infrastructure, their workforce, etc. to streamline their production- even then I think they more than break even). And if you look further into the topic, you’ll also find that China has the foundations- the talent, the resources, etc- to overcome it, and make ASML a thing of the past, even- it is a country of 1.5 billion, a greater total than that of the entire west and imperial bloc combined- and of those 1.5 billion, within their population no doubt, increasingly especially with the younger generations- an even more educated, more motivated population, also with more opportunities and far more of a stake in their nation’s efforts than that of the west (where it is increasingly rather the opposite).
ASML’s EUV machines and their process, for instance, is developed for export, and that is a limitation in and of itself; these machines are roughly the size of a bus, and that’s with them as minaturized as they can make it as-is. Look into the proposed and planned developments in China, and it becomes clear what’s next to come will in due time, wipe them off the map- for these manufacturing processes, for instance, it has been proposed and certainly can be made, that China could instead build an accelerator the size of a football field, and use that as a light source for a massive EUV complex which can and will produce chips at a volume incomprehensible to the west…
But I digress. EUV, at least western EUV, has already been made unnecessary; Huawei is already blatantly producing tangible proof of exactly that, albeit with less efficient DUV technology, yet they are basically right on the cusp of reaching parity all the same (and if not- so be it, it’s not like China or the universe will fall apart without it, and if worst comes to worst- especially in the case of a all-out economic split- China can very easily simply replicate existing EUV technology- the west cannot replicate China’s successes, not without first facing their own contradictions which have exacerbated to cartoonish proportions since the Reagan era with neoliberalism).
The west can try to monopolize, to stall, to hope that the “garden” can hold the keys to development and modernity out of reach of China and the global south- and FWIW it is China AND the entire global south, and particularly at the moment China and Russia (as two securely independent, deeply complimentary, and truly peer nations to the US) but also the rest of BRICS- but this is a losing game, it cannot be maintained, they can only ever stall, or try to overturn the table (and humanity altogether) if worst comes to worst. Its behavior is the height of imperial fallacy, and increasingly I will say- it is clear it will not succeed.