Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed on Tuesday that US crime statistics are āonlyā going up. In fact, most US crime numbers went down last year ā and the decreasesĀ included one of the largest national declines in murder ever recorded.
Trumpās speech in MichiganĀ focusedĀ on crime perpetrated by people who illegally entered the US. After he said that crime in Venezuela has fallen amid a wave of emigration from the South American country ā and exaggerated the extent ofĀ Venezuelaās improvementĀ ā he added, āWouldnāt we love to have a statistic where crime is down 67%? Ours is only going in one direction.ā He pointed sharply upward with his hand.
Facts First:Ā Trumpās claim that US crime statistics are only going up is false. Murder, other kinds of reported violent crime and reported property crime allĀ dropped in 2023, according to preliminary statistics published by the FBI. Crime data expert Jeff Asher says that, if confirmed by final data, the roughly 13% decline in murder would be the single biggest one-year drop on record in US data dating back to 1960, while the roughly 6% decline in reported violent crime would be one of the biggest on record; reported violent crimeĀ declinedĀ in every quadrant of the country, in cities of all sizes and in in rural communities. In addition, as Asher hasĀ pointed out, partial urban data for early 2024 shows that the number of murders again declined sharply in the first two months of this year.
One of the frustrating parts of these āTrump saidā¦ā headlines is that they donāt counter the prevailing view. They just entrench the view behind āDo I like/trust Donald Trump?ā
Because, if youāre MAGA, then youāre going to use this as evidence of the Lying Mainstream Media.
And if youāre a Bidencrat, youāre going to use this as evidence of Lying Trump.
But at the end of the day, both these cohorts are still going to be sold on Nextdoor āthere was a black person in my neighborhood!ā grainy door-cam footage and Sinclair Media police-sirens local ānonpartisanā media coverage.